Updated: May 20
Winter is lurking around the corner, and some of Autumn‘s last oil news and reports are coming in with strong predictions and forecasts. The oil and fuel market is dynamic, huge and dependent on many factors, which include geopolitics and more. But in the end, the consumer is the one who pays for it and feels the biggest effect. Various reports and forecasts have been released which analyze the world oil market, demand and supply analysis, refinery operations and more to find out the trend for oil moving forward. Let‘s stroll through a quick overview of what is happening for the future, and why the consumer is set to win, at least for now.
Oil News & Forecasts Leans In Favor of Consumers
Extensive reports and oil news by OPEC and other sources that eclipse the whole world, not only the United States reports a forecast that leans in favor of consumers and those in need to buy fuel which includes truck drivers, the trucking industry and companies.
This has a lot to do with refining capacity that is going to see an expansion so large that not every construction might be even finished while older plants might need to close their doors for good.
A rising surplus of distillation capacity will be at the global levels, and the majority of those closures are expected to take place in the U.S. and Canada.
Brent spot prices in 2020 will also be lower compared to this year due to the rise and arrival of new oil inventory.
Lots of New Oil Is Coming
Forecasts and oil news also tells us that there‘s lots of new oil to be delivered to the market, especially from non-OPEC countries with estimates of 9.9 million barrels per day rise between 2018 and 2024 which accounts for approximately 10% of the global oil market.
The countries named and projected to deliver new supplies are Norway, Canada, Brazil and brand new oil fields from Guyana in South America.
And while the growth forecast for US shale oil output has been lowered, it is still predicted to grow.
The Rising Demand
While those 9.9 million barrels per day from non-OPEC countries will pressure OPEC to give up the idea of increasing its own output, and probably even make reductions, meanwhile the overall demand will rise significantly.
The demand is going to increase 6.1 million barrels per day by the year 2024 mostly due to the fact that the mentioned countries will deliver so much of new oil to the market.
And it already can be seen as the growth in demand is more than doubled in the third quarter.
Not So High on Diesel Alternatives Though
While these oil news might indicate a competitive and rich oil market in the future, the prospect for diesel engine alternatives is not high at all.
Even though steps are being taken into that direction, commercial trucks are still far behind passenger vehicles in terms of shifting to alternative power sources for trucks such as hydrogen or battery.
Diesel and oil as a whole are trending to still be the biggest pushing power until 2040 that moves the freight around both in the US and the world.